瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -143,409 lots, down 17,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 443,942 lots, down 8,641 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was -200 yuan/ton, down 4,920 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -4,220 yuan/ton, down 5,280 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 17,850 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 154,000 yuan/ton, down 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 396,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 74,764 lots, up 7,757 lots; the total put position was 127,899 lots, up 12,286 lots; the total position put - call ratio was 171.07%, down 1.4684 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.70%, down 0.0186 percentage points [2] Industry News - The 2026 working meeting of the Inter - ministerial Joint Conference on the Development of Energy - saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry emphasized enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain, accelerating the breakthrough of technologies such as all - solid - state batteries and high - level autonomous driving [2] - Deputy Director Wang Jun of the General Administration of Customs stated that in the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of high - tech product imports and exports was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in 2025 further accelerated to 11.4% [2] - In 2025, the exports of lithium batteries and wind turbine generators increased by 26.2% and 48.7% respectively; the exports of electric motorcycles and bicycles increased by 18.1%, and the exports of railway electric locomotives increased by 27.1% [2] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, and new energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [2] - Musk announced that Tesla's lithium refinery is now in operation, claiming it to be the largest in the United States [2]