瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,375 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was - 220 yuan, down 110 yuan; the main contract position was 346,831 lots, down 22,129 lots; the LME aluminum cancellation warrant was 45,425 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,186 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 69,279 lots, down 3,792 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.65, down 0.04 [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,789 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was - 271 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position was 508,785 lots, down 9,236 lots; the total inventory of alumina was 196,081 tons, up 2,727 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,155 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was 45 yuan, up 125 yuan; the main contract position was 21,628 lots, down 382 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 70,668 tons, up 1,837 tons; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 73,288 tons, down 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, down 480 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 845 yuan, down 200 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 185 yuan, down 260 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 140 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 16.58 US dollars/ton, down 5.51 US dollars [2]. - Alumina Spot: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,575 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was - 214 yuan, up 11 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 170,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the import volume of alumina was 232,400 tons, up 43,100 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 108,700 tons, up 83,400 tons; the import volume of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,536.20 million tons, up 120,000 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.31%, up 0.10%; the production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, down 25,000 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 684,000 tons, down 16,000 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,600 tons, down 300 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles was 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.49%, up 0.41%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 17.93%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 29.61%, up 0.0075; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.071 [2]. Industry News - Philadelphia Fed President Paulson reiterated that if inflation continues to fall as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Fed may further cut interest rates later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari advocated maintaining the interest rate unchanged at the end - of - month monetary policy meeting [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that eight of the 12 Fed districts had slight to moderate growth in overall economic activity, three reported no change, and one reported a slight decline. Consumer spending in most banks had slight to moderate growth during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [2]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the US PPI and core PPI in November last year both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. The rise in energy costs was the main driver of the PPI increase [2]. - The central bank stated that China's price level had shown positive changes, and the coordinated effect of China's macro - policies was continuously strengthening, which would continue to promote a better match between supply and demand, smooth the real - economy cycle, further boost market confidence, and continue to affect prices [2]. - People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan announced on January 15 that the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools would be cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the one - year interest rates of various re - loans would be reduced to 1.25%. This structural interest - rate cut aimed to guide commercial banks to accurately invest credit resources in major national strategies, key areas, and weak links [2].