银河期货油脂日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term, the overall trend of oils and fats is oscillating with increased volatility. Palm oil can be considered for high-selling and low-buying operations, and holders of short positions can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. Soybean oil lacks a driving force and may follow the overall fluctuation of oils and fats. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract were 7938 (down 62), 8578 (down 170), and 8828 (down 121) respectively. The spot basis and its changes varied by region and variety [2] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 134 (down 4), 14 (down 52), and 14 (down 5) respectively [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 640 (up 108), 890, and 250 (up 49) respectively, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.90 (down 0.01) [2] - Import Profits: The import profit data of 24 - degree palm oil and crude rapeseed oil showed "N/A" [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the second week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 72.7, 73.6, and 25.1 million tons respectively, with corresponding changes compared to last week and the same period last year [2] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for February at 3846.84 ringgit per ton, with an export tariff rate of 9.0%. From January 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 727,440 tons, a 18.64% increase from the same period last month [4] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: As of January 9, 2026, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from last week. The origin's quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of 4 near - month purchase vessels. In the short term, the market lacked a clear driving force, and the high inventory was expected to maintain a slow destocking speed [4] - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 176.58 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 102.51 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from last week. The downstream demand was lackluster, and the inventory was expected to decline slightly in the future, but the supply was still sufficient [4][6] - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 million tons, with an operating rate of 0%. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The near - month contract of rapeseed oil had upward pressure and downward support [7] Part 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, oils and fats oscillate with increased volatility. Palm oil can be considered for high - selling and low - buying operations, and holders of short positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Soybean oil may follow the overall market fluctuation [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026 [14][15][18]