建信期货原油日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's statement about Iran and the easing of the Middle - East situation led to a rapid decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil, with the WTI main contract falling below $60 again [6]. - The US is gradually lifting sanctions on Venezuela and selling Venezuelan crude oil, resulting in a marginal negative impact on the supply side. There is also a stockpiling pressure of nearly 3 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in Q1 2026, making the supply - demand situation of oil prices bearish [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: WTI main contract opened at $60.88, closed at $61.02, with a high of $62.20, a low of $59.08, a daily increase of 0.15%, and a trading volume of 41.45 million lots; Brent main contract opened at $65.44, closed at $65.39, with a high of $66.82, a low of $63.45, a daily decrease of 0.12%, and a trading volume of 69.33 million lots; SC main contract opened at 456.4 yuan/barrel, closed at 444.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 458.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 441.3 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.89%, and a trading volume of 5.66 million lots [6]. - Market Analysis: Trump's remarks on Iran and the easing of the Middle - East situation caused a rapid decline in the geopolitical premium. The US lifting sanctions on Venezuela and selling Venezuelan crude oil brought marginal negative factors to the supply side, and there was a stockpiling pressure in Q1 2026 [6][7]. 3.2 Industry News - Venezuela's crude oil production in December decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 896,000 barrels per day [8]. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day and expected it to be 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for Iran's crude oil production in 2026, expecting it to remain stable at around 3.5 million barrels per day [8]. - Iran's oil minister said that Iran's oil exports had achieved record - breaking growth in the past 14 months [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [10][14][21][23]