油脂油料早报-20260116

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data in the week ending January 8 showed significant changes, with soybean export sales and shipments increasing compared to the previous week and four - week average, while soybean meal export shipments decreased [1]. - The U.S. December 2025 soybean crushing volume reached the second - highest in history, and the soybean oil inventory expanded to a 19 - month high [1]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with CONAB slightly lowering the forecast, while Agroconsult and RaboResearch predicting an increase [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel quota in early March, and there are considerations regarding the bio - based diesel quota [1]. - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff, and the palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 increased compared to the previous month [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content U.S. Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Data - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 206.19 million tons, up 135% from the previous week and 54% from the four - week average, with an export shipment of 163.74 million tons, up 47% from the previous week and 71% from the four - week average. New sales were 213.39 million tons for the current market year and 1 million tons for the next market year. Sales to the Chinese mainland net increased by 122.41 million tons, and shipments to the Chinese mainland were 90.11 million tons [1]. - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 34.06 million tons, up 115% from the previous week and 15% from the four - week average. Export shipments were 30.52 million tons, down 39% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. New sales were 35.92 million tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. U.S. Soybean Crushing and Inventory Data - In December 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly lower than the record high in October. The total soybean crushing volume in 2025 was nearly 2.4 billion bushels [1]. - As of December 31, 2025, the U.S. soybean oil inventory increased to 1.642 billion pounds, up 8.5% from the end of November and 32.8% from December 2024 [1]. Brazil's Soybean Production Forecast - CONAB lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 176.12 million tons, slightly lower than the December forecast, with a slightly decreased yield per hectare and a slightly lower export volume forecast [1]. - Agroconsult predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record 182.2 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the November estimate and 10.1 million tons from the previous year [1]. - RaboResearch predicted that Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean planting area would increase by 2%, and if the current yield trend continued, the production could reach a new record of 177 million tons. The export volume was expected to remain at the 2025 record level of 111 million tons, and the crushing volume was expected to increase by 2 million tons to 60 million tons [1]. Biofuel Policy - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keep the quota at a similar level to the current proposal, and is considering a bio - based diesel quota between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and may abandon the plan to penalize renewable fuel and its raw material imports [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (equivalent to 950 US dollars) [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 was 690,642 tons, up 17.5% from the same period last month, while ITS reported an export volume of 727,440 tons, up 18.6% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 9 - 15, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [2].