建信期货股指日评-20260116

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Review - On January 15, the Wind All - A index declined with shrinking volume. It rose slightly at the opening, then fluctuated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.16%. Over 3,000 stocks in the market fell. The CSI 300 closed up 0.20%, while the SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.21%, 0.05%, and 0.20% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IC, and IM closed up 0.14%, 0.11%, and 0.48% respectively, and the main contract of IH closed down 0.19% [6]. Market Outlook - Overseas, many Fed officials stated their commitment to policy independence, and Kashkari explicitly opposed interest - rate cuts. Domestically, after the market closed on this day, the central bank announced that starting from January 19, 2026, it would cut the rediscount rate and relending rate by 0.25 percentage points. After the cut, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year relending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses are 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate is 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate is 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.25%. In terms of funds, the market volume shrank significantly below 3 trillion, indicating that market sentiment cooled after the shock of the news of "adjusting the margin for margin trading" the previous day. However, the support around the Shanghai Composite Index at 4100 points is relatively strong, and the post - market news may boost market sentiment again. Overall, as the expectation of domestic economic improvement strengthens, the slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is gradually stabilizing. Maintain a long - term bullish mindset and mainly adopt a strategy of low - buying [7]. Industry News - On January 15, according to Cailian Press, Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that the People's Bank of China will introduce two policy measures. One is to cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools to encourage banks to increase credit supply in key areas. The interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the one - year relending rate will be cut from the current 1.5% to 1.25%. To better play the incentive role of structural monetary policy tools and guide financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links, the central bank decided to cut the rediscount rate and relending rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026 [31]. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - delivery spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and trading volume statistics of major ETFs, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][20]