建信期货集运指数日报-20260116

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, the price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rebounded above 1900 points on Monday, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. However, shipping companies recently lowered their quotes for late January. After the peak shipping season, they may cut prices to attract cargo, and the peak of spot prices may be approaching [8]. - This week, the index fluctuated greatly. The rush for tax refunds and the escalation of the Red Sea situation, which hit the resumption of shipping, brought significant disturbances. The short - term bullish factors may be difficult to disprove, and sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% to 1956.39 points on Monday. Shipping companies are lowering quotes for late January, and the peak of spot prices may appear after the peak shipping season [8]. - Futures Market: The index fluctuated greatly this week. The 04 contract for the off - season, which had previously factored in the information of the Red Sea shipping resumption, rebounded significantly. Short - term bullish sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From January 5th to 9th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends [9]. - Economic Data: China's official comprehensive PMI in December 2025 was 50.7, up 1 percentage point month - on - month. The eurozone's unemployment rate in November 2025 dropped to 6.3%. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December [9][10]. - Route Prices: On January 9th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate increased by 1.7%, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate increased by 2.8%, the Shanghai - US West basic port market freight rate increased by 1.4%, and the Shanghai - US East basic port market freight rate increased by 3.1% [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: On January 12, 2026, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned of a strong response if Saudi Arabia took military action [10]. - Shipping Company Policies: In December 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases for multiple international routes. There were uncertainties about Maersk's resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From January 5th to 12th, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 8.9% to 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS for the US West route increased by 5.9% to 1323.98 points [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on January 15th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, and various freight rates [18][21]