集运早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the 02 contract, it is gradually following the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market. [3] - For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in Week 5 when MSK opens bookings may suppress the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of rush - shipping may increase, potentially weakening the downward slope in March. Its valuation fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for possible corrective market trends. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is still recommended to focus on shorting the 10 - contract on rallies. [3] Summary by Related Content Market Data of Contracts - EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.06% increase, trading volume of 2673, and an open interest of 8878 with a decrease of 1583. [2] - EC2604 closed at 1202.7 with a 2.26% decrease, trading volume of 40524, and an open interest of 40832 with an increase of 788. [2] - EC2606 closed at 1421.8 with a 0.16% decrease, trading volume of 2189, and an open interest of 3048 with a decrease of 82. [2] - EC2608 closed at 1524.9 with a 0.50% decrease, trading volume of 153, and an open interest of 1321 with an increase of 15. [2] - EC2610 closed at 1111.0 with a 0.63% decrease, trading volume of 1331, and an open interest of 7581 with a decrease of 44. [2] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 516.3, with a day - on - day increase of 28.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 69.0. [2] - The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 219.1, with a day - on - day decrease of 25.5 and a week - on - week increase of 62.2. [2] Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period. [2] - The SCFI (European Line) index on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data. [2] News and Market Conditions - On January 15, Hamas officials stated they were ready to transfer the administrative power of the Gaza Strip to a technical - bureaucrat committee. [4] - On January 15, Maersk announced the resumption of the Suez Canal route for its MECL service due to improved stability in the Red Sea. [4] Shipping Company Quotations - In Week 3, MSK's booking price was 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 4, MSK's booking price was 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 5, MSK's booking price was 2400 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), PA was 2200 dollars, MSC was 2600 dollars, OA was 2700 dollars. The overall central price was 2500 - 2600 dollars, equivalent to 1750 - 1820 points on the futures market. [7]