有色套利早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Cross-Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: On January 16, 2026, the domestic spot price was 102,350, LME spot price 13,127 with a ratio of 7.87; domestic March price 102,810, LME March price 13,090 with a ratio of 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.91 with a loss of 1,800.78, and a profit of 209.21 for spot export [1] - Zinc: The domestic spot price was 25,400, LME spot price 3,276 with a ratio of 7.75; domestic March price 25,090, LME March price 3,304 with a ratio of 5.33. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31 with a loss of 1,836.01 [1] - Aluminum: The domestic spot price was 24,200, LME spot price 3,162 with a ratio of 7.65; domestic March price 24,375, LME March price 3,161 with a ratio of 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32 with a loss of 2,111.19 [1] - Nickel: The domestic spot price was 146,300, LME spot price 18,237 with a ratio of 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00 with a loss of 492.25 [1] - Lead: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME spot price 2,039 with a ratio of 8.50; domestic March price 17,550, LME March price 2,083 with a ratio of 12.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52 with a loss of 42.48 [3] 3.2 Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were - 890, - 640, - 510, - 400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 619, 1137, 1663, 2189 [4] - Zinc: The spreads were 645, 690, 745, 735 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 356, 487, 618 [4] - Aluminum: The spreads were - 165, - 110, - 70, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 368, 502, 637 [4] - Lead: The spreads were 160, 230, 275, 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - Nickel: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were 4950, 5220, 5520, 5830 [4] - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread was 8690 with a theoretical spread of 8666 [4] 3.3 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were 950 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 797 and 1231 [4] - Zinc: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 1000 and - 355 respectively. Theoretical spreads were 256 and 375 [5] - Lead: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 80 and 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 176 and 292 [5] 3.4 Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 16, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.10, 4.22, 5.86, 0.97, 1.39, 0.70 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.95, 4.14, 6.24, 0.96, 1.51, 0.63 respectively [5]