纯碱、玻璃日报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term due to rising production, weakening demand, and insufficient downstream inventory reduction willingness, along with the long - standing core contradictions in the industry remaining unresolved. The glass market is also expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with supply contraction being the core price - supporting factor, but facing challenges from weak downstream real - estate data and the cancellation of export tax - rebate policies [8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda Ash: On January 15, the main contract SA605 of soda ash slightly declined, closing at 1193 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 30,978 lots. The overall supply - demand pattern shows rising production, weakening demand, and inventory is expected to face continuous accumulation pressure. The downstream float glass industry is still weak, and the long - standing core contradictions in the industry remain unresolved. If the export scale does not expand significantly or the elimination of backward production capacity is slower than expected, the supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. In the short term, it will likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7][8] - Glass: On January 15, the main contract FG2605 of glass futures was weak and volatile, rising during the day and then falling. The glass production line is generally in a loss state, and there is still an expectation of cold repair before the festival, so the supply is expected to further narrow. The overall inventory base is still high. In the short term, supply contraction will support prices, but downstream real - estate data continues to decline year - on - year, and the cancellation of export tax - rebate policies squeezes profit margins. Before substantial benefits such as capacity clearance appear, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, etc., with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][13][14]