建信期货棉花日报-20260116

1. Report Information - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core View - In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is in a wide - range shock adjustment, awaiting new drivers, while in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 850 or higher, and that in northern Xinjiang was mostly at 1000 or higher. The sales of pure - cotton yarn varieties were significantly differentiated. The sales pressure of low - count and regular varieties was prominent, while the high - count combed yarn orders remained good, with firm prices and relatively good order schedules. The overall trading in the all - cotton grey cloth market was still dull. [7] - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, the lint inspection was in the final stage. As of mid - January, the daily inspection volume was around 36,000 tons. According to the current progress, the output in the 2025/26 season might still have an upward adjustment pressure. The large gap between domestic and foreign prices needed adjustment, and the possibility of importing foreign cotton through reserve cotton rotation increased. As of the end of December, the commercial inventory level of cotton was higher than that of the previous year. On the demand side, the export amount of textiles and clothing in December increased month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the export amount in 2025 further expanded. Domestic demand was relatively supportive, with the sales of medium - and high - count yarns remaining good, and the sales of some low - count yarn varieties also improving. The downstream stocking rhythm accelerated, and inventory was reduced. [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 14, 2026, a total of 1,097 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,477,135 bales, totaling 6.8797 million tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 30,099,924 bales, totaling 6.7952 million tons, an increase of 29,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 217,257 bales, totaling 48,300 tons. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented a series of data charts including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar against RMB, and US dollar against Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [16][18][19]