建信期货油脂日报-20260116

Report Overview - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The three major oils have collectively corrected, mainly dragged down by the decline in the external crude oil market. Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the oversupply of US soybeans, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, and sufficient global soybean supply, combined with soybean auctions, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and recent highs. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850 - 8150 in the first quarter. [8] - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to rising Malaysian palm oil inventories and the delay in Indonesia's shift from B40 to B50 in 2026. Attention should be paid to whether Indian demand can recover. If export improvement fails to meet market expectations, a second bottoming is expected. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14, and the market expects the China - Canada trade relationship to ease. China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian canola oil. This week, canola oil prices have continued to bottom out under the guidance of policy expectations. Attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment. [8] - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. Oils are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. Current prices face correction pressure. [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - East China third - grade canola oil: 05 + 800 in February; 05 + 650 from February to May; 05 + 600 from April to May. Dongguan canola oil quote: 05 + 1200 for third - grade canola oil from January to February. [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, spot is Y05 + 520; 05 + 500 from January to March; 05 + 480 from February to March; 05 + 380 from February to May; 05 + 360 from March to May; 05 + 300 from April to May; 05 + 240 from May to July; 05 + 210 from June to September; 05 + 200 from July to September; third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 450; degummed soybean oil is 05 + 320. [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories; 05 + 40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil; 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - Operation Suggestions: - For futures trading, pay attention to the price range of Y2605 (7850 - 8150 in Q1). Monitor the recovery of Indian palm oil demand and official signals of canola oil tariff adjustment. [8] - For arbitrage, adopt the strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. [8] 3.2 Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.6% increase compared to 613,172 tons from December 1 - 15. [9] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 3.73 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4 million tons. If the estimate comes true, it will be a 233% increase compared to 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. ANEC's head said on January 7 that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade canola oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil, and price spreads such as P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, and exchange rates like the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [13][16][22]