建信期货多晶硅日报-20260116

Report Information - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The policy direction has shifted from anti - involution to anti - monopoly, breaking the strong cost support logic. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products is negative, and the exchange's risk control remains strict. Although the spot price of polysilicon is high, the fundamentals are weak. With high expected production in January and downstream in the cycle of production cuts, terminal demand is in the off - season, so it is advisable to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 12,703 lots, the open interest was 47,798 lots, with a net decrease of 641 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 398 lots, and the top twenty short positions had a net decrease of 769 lots [4] - Spot Price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4] - Future Outlook: The expected production of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream is in the cycle of production cuts, the silver price has risen significantly, squeezing the profit of photovoltaic main products, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected production of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively [4] 2. Market News - On January 15, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,560 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance announced that from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5]