芳烃橡胶早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA device has a slight reduction in load, the polyester load remains stable, and the inventory continues to decline. However, with the concentrated introduction of polyester maintenance plans, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee shrinks. In the future, the domestic production of PX remains high due to high profits, and the overseas start - up recovers, resulting in a downward revision of the destocking amplitude for the far - month. The short - term upward space is limited, but the overall pattern has not changed before the new device is put into production. Attention should be paid to the progress of the overseas start - up increase [4]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has a partial reduction in load, and overseas maintenance increases month - on - month. The port inventory decreases at the beginning of the week, but the arrival forecast rebounds during the week, and the basis remains weak. The coal - based efficiency improves month - on - month. The overall inventory accumulation continues, and the pattern is expected to remain weak under the continued new production. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end device operates stably, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.6%, and the sales improve month - on - month, with a slight reduction in inventory. The downstream seasonal trend is expected to continue to weaken, and the start - up rate remains high with limited inventory pressure. It has a medium - low valuation and weak driving force, with limited overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [4]. Summaries by Related Contents PTA - Price and Index Data: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, the price of crude oil decreased from 6540 to 6380, the PX processing fee fluctuated slightly, the PTA load index remained at 80.4, and the polyester load remained at 78.2. The average daily trading basis of PTA was 2605(-64) [4]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device were under maintenance. The near - end TA device had a slight reduction in load, and the start - up rate decreased month - on - month [4]. - Market Situation: The polyester load remained stable, the inventory continued to decline, but the polyester maintenance plans were concentrated, the basis weakened, and the spot processing fee shrank. The domestic start - up of PX was at a high level, and the overseas load increase led to a month - on - month contraction of PXN, with the disproportionation benefit weakening and the isomerization benefit remaining high [4]. MEG - Price and Index Data: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, the price of MEG had small fluctuations, the coal - based MEG profit improved month - on - month, and the basis for 05 was around (-145) [4]. - Device Changes: Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load. The near - end domestic oil - based production had a partial reduction in load, and overseas maintenance increased month - on - month [4]. - Market Situation: The port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, but the arrival forecast rebounded during the week, and the basis remained weak. The overall inventory accumulation continued, and the absolute inventory was not low. The pattern was expected to remain weak under the continued new production [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Data: The spot price was around 6472, and the market basis for 02 was around - 60. From January 9th to 15th, 2026, the prices of related products such as 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained relatively stable [4]. - Device and Production: The near - end device operated stably, the start - up rate was maintained at 97.6%, the sales improved month - on - month, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream yarn - making start - up rate remained stable, the raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [4]. - Market Situation: After the raw material price adjustment, the spot processing fee of staple fiber improved, but the futures price remained low. The downstream seasonal trend was expected to continue to weaken, and the start - up rate remained high with limited inventory pressure [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Data: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, the prices of products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, and Shanghai full - latex rubber had certain fluctuations. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased from 1885 to 1920 [4]. - Spread and Profit Data: The spreads such as the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract, and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber also changed. For example, the processing profit of Thai standard rubber increased from 3.8 to 5.2 [4].