建信期货生猪日报-20260116

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pig Futures [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On January 15, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down. It closed with a negative line in the late session. The highest price was 12,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,915 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,950 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,636 lots to 359,189 lots [6] Spot Market - On January 15, the average price of ternary pigs in the whole country was 12.74 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] Supply Side - Before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased periodically. Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is higher than the same period last year. According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month-on-month. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is slightly slow, and the slaughter weight has little change [7] Demand Side - Secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. The demand for curing and enema is near the end. The terminal consumer consumption has returned to the pre-holiday level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On January 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 185,900 heads, down 1,000 heads from the previous day, 3,700 heads week-on-week, and 5,300 heads month-on-month [7] Overall Situation - In the spot market, the consumption peak has passed, the supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates mainly. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. The pressure of secondary fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market. However, the epidemic in the north was more serious than the same period last year, which boosted the 03 contract. At present, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has no sign of continued spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally. The progress of the epidemic should be continuously tracked [7] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8, the average selling price of 15kg piglets in the market was 366 yuan/head, up 45 yuan/head from the previous week [8] Group 4: Data Overview Breeding Profit - As of January 8, the average profit and loss per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was basically balanced, up 28 yuan/head week-on-week. The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -129.8 yuan/head, up 31 yuan/head week-on-week [16] Slaughter Weight - As of the week of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.54kg, down 0.12kg from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [16]