大越期货玻璃早报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental outlook, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply is at a low level due to increased cold - repairs, while downstream demand from deep - processing plants is dismal, and factory inventories are high [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1096 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91%. The spot price of Shahe safety large - plate remained unchanged at 936 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased from - 160 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.25% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 936 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost - Glass production profit has weak recovery, which is a factor leading to increased cold - repairs in the industry [2][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 216, with an operating rate of 71.96%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity is 150,100 tons, also at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The cash - collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [24][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 53.013 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.51% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the expected production is 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the expected consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [41].