大越期货尿素早报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend. The current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The order demand has improved, and the agricultural reserve demand has increased. The inventory is in a destocking state, but the domestic market is still in a state of oversupply [4]. 3. Detailed Summaries Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With the return from maintenance, the operating rate is expected to rise. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the destocking pattern is obvious. Order demand has improved significantly compared with the previous period, agricultural reserve demand has increased, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 41, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.3%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 115.7 million tons (-3.4), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile and strong. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise, order demand has improved, reserve demand has increased, and inventory is destocking. It is expected that UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Inventory destocking and improved orders [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1760 (+20), Shandong spot is 1760 (+20), Henan spot is 1760 (0), and FOB China is 2807 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 05 contract is 1801 (-13), the basis is - 41 (+33), UR01 is 1716 (-3), UR05 is 1801 (-13), and UR09 is 1772 (-12) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 13355 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 115.7 million tons (-3.4), UR manufacturer inventory is 102.2 million tons, and UR port inventory is 13.5 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [9].