大越期货纯碱早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have high production, with overall supply expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1193 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 yuan, showing that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, while the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans in 2025. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1222 | 1160 | - 62 | | Current Value | 1193 | 1140 | - 53 | | Change Rate | - 2.37% | - 1.72% | - 14.52% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 40 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly production of soda ash is 75.36 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 40.45 tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][21]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - Photovoltaic Glass: No detailed data provided in the given content. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].