原木期货日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods, leading to price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upside potential is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the high end of the range, short - selling can be considered [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The prices of log contracts such as log2601, log2603, log2605, and log2607 showed small increases or remained unchanged on January 15 compared to January 14, with the largest increase of 0.19% for log2607. The main contract basis decreased by 1.0 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of many types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, except for the 4A small and medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 1.47% and 1.35% respectively. The ex - port quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly from 6.967 on January 15 to 6.963 on January 16, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.49 yuan to 754.32 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory increased by 14.8 million cubic meters to 204.0 million cubic meters in December compared to November, a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships in the port increased by 6 to 55, a growth rate of 12.24% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. The inventory in Shandong was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.51% [1] 3.5 Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters to 2.79 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 0.18 million cubic meters to 2.35 million cubic meters, an increase of 8% [2] 3.6 Forecast of Arrival of New Logs - From January 12 - January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]