建信期货铁矿石日评-20260116

1. Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Quotes 2.1 Futures Contracts Quotes on January 15 - RB2605: Closed at 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 754,088 lots and an open interest of 1,685,122 lots, a decrease of 6,339 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - HC2605: Closed at 3307 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a trading volume of 326,133 lots and an open interest of 1,448,345 lots, a decrease of 530 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.00 billion yuan [5] - SS2603: Closed at 14415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with a trading volume of 489,832 lots and an open interest of 145,444 lots, an increase of 10,565 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.53 billion yuan [5] - I2605: Closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 252,986 lots and an open interest of 652,402 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.50 billion yuan [5] 2.2 Futures Contracts' Top 20 Long - Short Positions on January 15 - RB2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,064,999 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,065,708 lots, an increase of 5,112 lots, and the long - short difference was -12,008 lots, with a deviation of -1.13% [8] - HC2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,055,923 lots, a decrease of 37 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,059,878 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots, and the long - short difference was -2,684 lots, with a deviation of -0.25% [8] - SS2603: The top 20 long positions were 102,619 lots, an increase of 5,928 lots; the top 20 short positions were 114,495 lots, an increase of 9,908 lots, and the long - short difference was -3,980 lots, with a deviation of -3.67% [8] - J2605: The top 20 long positions were 25,469 lots, a decrease of 540 lots; the top 20 short positions were 27,514 lots, a decrease of 640 lots, and the long - short difference was 100 lots, with a deviation of 0.38% [8] - JM2605: The top 20 long positions were 250,835 lots, a decrease of 2,077 lots; the top 20 short positions were 345,552 lots, an increase of 11,642 lots, and the long - short difference was -13,719 lots, with a deviation of -4.60% [8] - I2605: The top 20 long positions were 411,151 lots, a decrease of 911 lots; the top 20 short positions were 433,889 lots, a decrease of 8,428 lots, and the long - short difference was 7,517 lots, with a deviation of 1.78% [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On January 15, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opened lower, fluctuated and declined, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and weakened again at the end of the session, closing at 813.0 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [7] - In the spot market on January 15, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 6 - 9 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract was moving downward, the K and J values turned back, and the D value continued to decline; the daily MACD indicator's red bar of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive weeks [9] 3.2 Market Outlook - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have been declining for two consecutive weeks, with last week's shipments dropping by 1.333 million tons to 25.332 million tons. The arrival volume has been increasing in the past two weeks, with last week's arrival volume increasing by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume may remain at a high level this week and then gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly again last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, returning to 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons. The resilience of iron ore demand is very strong. This is due to the resumption of production of some overhauled production lines after the New Year's Day holiday and the repair of steel profits. The profitability rate of steel mills has remained around 37% - 38% in recent weeks. The blast furnace profit of rebar has turned positive and continues to rise, and the production profits of rebar electric furnace and hot - rolled coil, although still negative, are close to the break - even point [11] - Inventory side: Currently, steel mills are restocking on - demand, and the available days of inventory decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. However, the restocking stage before the Spring Festival will start in mid - to - late January, and the restocking demand will boost the ore price to some extent. The port inventory has been accumulating since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the inventory at 45 ports reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, a new high since April 2018. However, the port inventory is structurally differentiated, with more inventory in the hands of traders, and the proportion of steel mills' inventory continues to decline. There may be a supply gap for the medium - and low - grade iron ore favored by steel mills, resulting in strong prices [11] - Overall, the previous increase in ore prices was affected by the strong rise of the overall commodity market and the marginal strengthening of the iron ore's own fundamentals. Before the Spring Festival, the restocking demand will further support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price may rebound after a decline, but the high port inventory will also bring upward pressure, and the upward space is relatively limited. At least in the week before the Spring Festival, the ore price will remain resilient [12] 4. Industry News - On January 15, the central bank deputy governor Zou Lan said that the central bank will launch two policy measures. One is to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to improve banks' enthusiasm for credit investment in key areas. The one - year interest rates of various re - loans will be lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.25% [13] - Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business re - loan interest rates will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool interest rate will be 1.25% [13] 5. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and shipping volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [15][21][23]