建信期货铜期货日报-20260116

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Shanghai copper market showed a volatile decline, but the decline narrowed in the afternoon as risk appetite recovered. After the market closed, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the monetary policy tool rate and indicated there is room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts this year. The supply of copper is expected to contract, and demand may pick up as copper prices correct. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. Although the short - term spot pressure is increasing, the loose Chinese monetary policy will offset the pressure, and copper prices will oscillate to digest the inventory pressure [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. Trump postponed the tariff increase on key minerals, leading to significant selling in the metal sector. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell below the trend line. However, risk appetite recovered in the afternoon, and the decline in copper prices narrowed. After the market closed, the central bank cut the monetary policy tool rate [10] - Spot Market: The copper spot price dropped by 1340 to 102,575. The spot premium rose to 200, and the monthly spread in the last trading month widened with a stronger premium. The social inventory increased by 2.75 to 32.09 million tons compared to Monday due to the concentrated arrival of domestic copper during the delivery cycle [10] - Import and Supply Outlook: The loss of spot copper imports narrowed to 1465. The arrival of imported copper will remain low, and the arrival of domestic copper will also decrease after the delivery. Supply is expected to contract [10] - Demand and Inventory Outlook: Demand may pick up as copper prices decline. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. The current spot C - L prices are basically the same. The high inventory in the COMEX market may impact the LME market, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure has declined, increasing short - term spot pressure [10] 2. Industry News - Jiangxi Copper: Jiangxi Copper's subsidiary signed an investment option agreement with a subsidiary of First Quantum Minerals Limited for exploration project cooperation. The signing of this agreement does not constitute a related - party transaction or a major asset restructuring [10] - Elemental Group: The largest recycling company in Poland plans to invest $8 billion in two core projects named "Polvolt", with two - thirds of the funds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects have received EU and Polish government subsidies, and the company is looking for minority - equity partners, likely from Asia [10][11] - US Policy: US President Trump decided to temporarily refrain from imposing new tariffs on key mineral imports. He will seek to negotiate agreements with foreign countries and is considering a "price floor" mechanism. He also warned that import restrictions including tariffs may be imposed if satisfactory agreements cannot be reached [11]