Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: The inland prices have bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which restricts the upside potential of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2]. - Plastic (PE): The futures market is oscillating, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating. The difference between North and East China is -80, a decrease of 30; the difference between South and East China is 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and both oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, and the theoretical LL import profit is 63. The HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40; the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industries are reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventories have increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the historical average. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased compared to the previous period. There are few maintenance plans in January, and the full - density production has recovered. Looking ahead, as supply returns, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is expected to be moderate, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under significant pressure [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly compared to the previous period. In terms of domestic regional price differences, the difference between North and East China is -70, an increase of 35; the difference between South and East China is 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, oil - based profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230. The PDH operation rate has remained stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving industries have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is expected to be flat compared to the previous month. Downstream enterprises have slightly replenished their inventories at low prices during the holiday season. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while coal chemical industries are increasing inventory, and social inventories are also increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a moderate level. According to the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than normal. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for ethylene - based PVC is 575, and for calcium carbide - based PVC is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged from the previous period; the semi - coke price is 820, also unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also low. The ex - factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry using purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The prices of ethylene and calcium carbide are stable. Upstream industries have remained stable this week, with an operation rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. This week, the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%; the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons; the inventory in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the operation rate has recovered seasonally. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, exports this year are relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: The power coal futures price is 801. The Jiangsu spot price is around 2250 - 2270, the South China spot price is around 2235 - 2260, the Lunan converted price is 2340 - 2345, the Southwest converted price is 2315, the Hebei converted price is 2340 - 2345, the Northwest converted price is 2430 - 2438, the CFR China price is 267, and the CFR Southeast Asia price is 322. The import profit is -12 to -24, and the main contract basis is -10 to -27 [2]. - Market Analysis: The inland prices have bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which restricts the upside potential of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored [2]. Plastic (PE) - Price Data: The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 725 - 745. The North China LL price is 6500 - 6740, the East China LL price is 6700 - 6900, the East China LD price is 8950 - 9225, the East China HD price is 7000 - 7500, the LL US dollar price is 765, the LL US Gulf price is 808 - 819, the import profit is 156 - 281, the main contract futures price is 6674 - 6820, the basis is -130 to -160, the two - oil inventory is 57 - 11365, and the warehouse receipt is 10894 - 11998 [3]. - Market Analysis: The futures market is oscillating, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is weak. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and both oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating. Upstream coal chemical industries are reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventories have increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the historical average. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly. The linear production schedule has increased, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. The overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is expected to be moderate, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under significant pressure [3]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: The Shandong propylene price is 5820 - 6050, the Northeast Asian propylene price is 720 - 740, the East China PP price is 6310 - 6415, the North China PP price is 6293 - 6563, the Shandong powder price is 6300 - 6470, the East China copolymer price is 6568 - 6800, the PP US dollar price is 775 - 785, the PP US Gulf price is 830, the export profit is -33 to -47, the main contract futures price is 6514 - 6592, the basis is -180 to -200, the two - oil inventory is 57 - 17575, and the warehouse receipt is 15445 - 17508 [5]. - Market Analysis: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly. In terms of domestic regional price differences, the difference between North and East China is -70, an increase of 35; the difference between South and East China is 100, a decrease of 30. Upstream oil - based profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230. The PDH operation rate has remained stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving industries have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is expected to be flat compared to the previous month. Downstream enterprises have slightly replenished their inventories at low prices during the holiday season. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while coal chemical industries are increasing inventory, and social inventories are also increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a moderate level. According to the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than normal. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: The Northwest calcium carbide price is 2400, the Shandong caustic soda price is 695 - 712, the calcium carbide - based East China price is 4640 - 4710, the ethylene - based East China price is not provided, the calcium carbide - based South China price is not provided, the calcium carbide - based North price is 4300 - 4350, the import US dollar price (CFR China) is 650 - 660, the export profit is 65 - 82, the Northwest comprehensive profit is not provided, the North China comprehensive profit is not provided, and the basis (high - end delivery product) is -250 to -330 [6][7]. - Market Analysis: The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for ethylene - based PVC is 575, and for calcium carbide - based PVC is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged from the previous period; the semi - coke price is 820, also unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also low. The ex - factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry using purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The prices of ethylene and calcium carbide are stable. Upstream industries have remained stable this week, with an operation rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. This week, the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%; the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons; the inventory in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the operation rate has recovered seasonally. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, exports this year are relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [7].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260116
Yong An Qi Huo·2026-01-16 01:37