棉花早报2026年1月16日-20260116

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has mixed factors. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, a positive basis, a favorable technical chart, and a bullish position of the main players. Negative factors include the expected high ending inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 season. After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is currently in a period of shock adjustment, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. - There are also some other influencing factors. Bullish factors include the pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and a reduction in export tariffs to the US. Bearish factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the USDA December report for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 2608.1 million tons, consumption is 2582.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1654.1 million tons. In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the December 2025/26 report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,972 yuan, with a basis of 1,297 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture expects an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons for the 2025/26 season in December, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Technical Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Player's Position: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - Expectation: After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is in a shock adjustment period, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Forecast: In the 2025/26 season, production in China is expected to be 751.2 million tons, India 511.7 million tons, Vietnam 408.2 million tons, etc. Consumption, imports, and ending inventory data for different countries are also provided. For example, China's consumption is expected to be 849.1 million tons, imports 117.6 million tons, and ending inventory 776.5 million tons [10][11]. - ICAC Forecast: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 3041.385 million hectares, with a yield of 835.13 million tons, consumption of 971.442 million tons, and ending inventory of 1622.785 million tons [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 2025/26 season, production is 727.8 million tons, imports are 110 million tons, consumption is 810 million tons, and ending inventory is 1011.6 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.