大越期货贵金属早报-20260116

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, Trump denied dismissing Powell and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, causing metal prices to stop rising and gold prices to fluctuate at a high level. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling risk appetite also contributed to the price volatility. The upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited due to factors like recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [4]. - For silver, the Trump administration's decision on tariffs led to silver prices stopping their rise and experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. The downward pressure on silver prices increased as domestic sentiment cooled rapidly, and there were geopolitical concerns along with a cooling risk appetite [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.33% to $4,620.50 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4.53 basis points to 4.171%, the US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.35, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9631. The gold futures basis was - 2.98, indicating the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100,152 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce. The silver futures basis was - 15, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,703 kilograms to 638,399 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of Fed members, the US January NAHB housing market index, the opening of the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference, Germany's December CPI final value, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva's speech, the US December industrial production, the welcome speech by Boston Fed President Collins at the 2026 New England Economic Forum, Fed Governor Bowman's talk on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the keynote speech by Fed Vice - Chair Philip Jefferson at the US Economic Research Institute meeting [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, along with liquidity concerns, have a limited upward impact on gold prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns that are positive for gold prices, while factors like potential Trump new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Positive factors include global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, tariff support for non - ferrous metals, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include significant Fed internal differences, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, and Bloomberg commodity index adjustments [12][13]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main players increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.83% to 186,651 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions decreased by 2.04% to 47,740, and the net position decreased by 1.76% to 138,911. The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly [30][34][38]. - Silver: The net long position of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.46% to 369,580 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions increased by 3.30% to 305,332, and the net position decreased by 6.43% to 64,248. The silver ETF position decreased slightly, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [32][36][40].