大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and rise, closing with a positive line, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with the short positions increasing more significantly. Overall, it was a volume - driven upward movement. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - position dominance expanding. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 25,420, and the basis was +330, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - On January 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 106,700 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 548 tons to 33,810 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, a bullish sign [2]. - The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on January 15 - For different delivery months (from 2601 to 2612), there were various price movements, including opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, and settlement reference prices. The trading volume, turnover, and open interest also varied. For example, the 2603 contract had a trading volume of 502,358 lots and a turnover of 62,860,449,300 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on January 15 - The spot TC for zinc concentrate was 1,300 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/dry ton, with no change. The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Tianjin all increased, with increases ranging from 780 to 850 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main National Markets (January 5, 2025 - January 15, 2026) - The total inventory on January 15 was 1.065 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons compared to January 8 and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to January 12. Inventories in different regions such as Dongri, Guangdong, and Tianjin also changed to varying degrees [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on January 15 - The total zinc warrants on January 15 were 33,810 tons, an increase of 548 tons. Warrants in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different changes. For example, in Guangdong, the total warrants decreased by 175 tons, while in Tianjin, they increased by 723 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on January 15 - The previous day's inventory was 106,725 tons, with 600 tons received and 625 tons delivered. The current inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The registered warrants were 98,125 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 8,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 8.04% [8]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on January 15 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming all increased by 630 yuan/ton [10]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on January 15 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry all increased by 840 yuan/ton [13]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on January 15 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 1,100 to 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/ton [18]. 10. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on January 15 - In terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 151,423 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 96,162 lots, and another unnamed futures company (on behalf of clients) with 58,719 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 20,278 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 17,894 lots [19].