大越期货油脂早报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is in a state of shock and consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8364, with a basis of 426, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract have decreased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - Expectations: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8580, with a basis of - 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The assessment is neutral [3]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. This is a bearish factor [3]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [3]. - Main positions: The short positions of palm oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [3]. - Expectations: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9806, with a basis of 978, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. This is a bullish factor [4]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [4]. - Main positions: The short positions of rapeseed oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [4]. - Expectations: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].