《有色》日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment, and cautious participation is recommended. Supply: Myanmar's tin ore imports increased significantly in November, and Indonesia's approved export quota for 2026 is about 60,000 tons. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industry is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in production is gradually being implemented. Pay attention to the change in polysilicon production and the lower support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures are weakly volatile. There is support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. The market has a certain bottom - support as silicon wafer and polysilicon supply and demand are basically matched. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [4]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals are good, and the bottom center is gradually rising. In the short term, the price remains high due to the global inventory imbalance and supply concerns. Pay attention to the change in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99,000 - 100,000 support [7]. Zinc - The LME's suspension of zinc ingot delivery from Korea Zinc led to a supply - tightening expectation. The price is supported by the tight ore supply, but there is also pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 24,000 support [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The market showed a high - level correction. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - The price is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory accumulation, downstream consumption, and overseas events [12]. Nickel - The market is affected by Indonesia's nickel ore policy adjustment and geopolitical factors. The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, with the main center reference range of 140,000 - 152,000 yuan [13]. Stainless Steel - The market is driven by raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the cost support is strengthened, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, with the reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures are in shock adjustment. The production is slightly increasing, and the demand has certain resilience. The short - term is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the reference range of 155,000 - 165,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Tin: SMM 1 tin rose 5.06% to 426,000 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased 12.50% to 700 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis of some varieties changed [3]. - Polysilicon: The average price of N - type materials was stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased 4.74% [4]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 1.29% to 102,575 yuan/ton, and the premium increased [7]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 3.42% to 25,410 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM ADC12 decreased 0.83% to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined spread of some varieties changed [11]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum decreased 1.95% to 24,190 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [12]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 2.46% to 150,050 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased [13]. - Stainless Steel: The prices of 304/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan rose, and the basis increased [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed [17]. Inter - month Spread - Tin: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed, with some spreads decreasing and some increasing [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The spreads of the main contract and other contracts changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [3]. - Polysilicon: The spreads of contracts such as the main contract, near - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed significantly [4]. - Copper: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [7]. - Zinc: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [11]. - Aluminum: The spreads of AL 2602 - 2603, AL 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [12]. - Nickel: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [13]. - Stainless Steel: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [17]. Fundamental Data - Tin: In November, tin ore imports increased 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06%. The开工率 of some sectors changed [1]. - Industrial Silicon: In December, the national industrial silicon production decreased 1.15%, and the开工 rates of different regions changed. The production of related downstream products and export volume also changed [3]. - Polysilicon: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory also changed [4]. - Copper: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.90%. The开工 rate of copper rod production and inventory changed [7]. - Zinc: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.22%. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: In December, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the开工 rates of different - sized enterprises and inventory changed [11]. - Aluminum: In December, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, and the import and export volumes of electrolytic aluminum changed. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [12]. - Nickel: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and the import volume increased 30.08%. The inventory changed [13]. - Stainless Steel: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: In December, the production and demand of lithium carbonate changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [17]. Inventory Change - Tin: SHEF inventory decreased 12.61%, social inventory decreased 12.23%, and SHEF warehouse receipts increased 34.04% [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Social inventory increased 0.54%, and warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable [3]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon inventory increased 6.29%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% [4]. - Copper: Domestic social inventory increased 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased 24.22% [7]. - Zinc: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 0.08%, and LME inventory was basically stable [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The weekly social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased 1.41%, and the daily inventory of some regions changed [11]. - Aluminum: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% [12]. - Nickel: SHFE inventory increased 2.43%, social inventory increased 3.61%, and LME inventory increased 0.22% [13]. - Stainless Steel: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased 1.47%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.89% [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23%, and the upstream and downstream inventories changed [17].