大越期货螺卷早报-20260116

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - For螺纹, the overall view is to treat it with a volatile and bearish mindset due to factors such as lackluster demand, a low - rising inventory, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle. However, there are also some positive factors like low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [2][3]. - For热卷, considering the weakening supply and demand, reduced inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, it is also recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach. There are positive factors such as fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [7][9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Analysis - 螺纹: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish. But low production and spot premium are positive factors [2][3]. - 热卷: Supply and demand are both weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role, with an overall neutral assessment [7]. b) Basis Analysis - 螺纹: The spot price is 3300, and the basis is 138, which is bullish [2]. - 热卷: The spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 16, which is neutral [7]. c) Inventory Analysis - 螺纹: The inventory in 35 major cities is 295.41 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - 热卷: The inventory in 33 major cities is 285.8 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. d) Market Analysis - 螺纹: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - 热卷: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. e) Main Position Analysis - 螺纹: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - 热卷: The net position of the main contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. f) Price - related Analysis The report also presents various price - related data, including螺纹and热卷spot prices, prices in Southeast Asian export markets,唐山steel billet prices, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive prices [11][14][17]. g) Production - related Analysis It shows data on高炉开工 rate,螺纹short - process electric furnace开工率,螺纹and热卷weekly production, etc [31][34][37]. h) Profit - related Analysis Profit data such as螺纹and热卷disk profit,高炉estimated profit, and建筑用钢electric furnace estimated profit are provided [43][46][48]. i) Consumption - related Analysis Data on螺纹and热卷apparent consumption, inventory - to - consumption ratio, and building material trading volume are presented [67][72][75]. j) Industry - related Analysis It includes data on real - estate development investment, sales area, housing new construction, construction, and completion area, manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement prices [78][80][82].