有色早报-20260116

Group 1: Copper - The copper price has significantly increased recently, driven by the expected potential refined copper tariff in the US, which causes a phased inventory transfer to the US, and the inflow of investment funds. The market remains optimistic about copper due to low inventories in non - US regions and continuous restocking in the US. In the future, the copper price will depend on the terminal demand's ability to accept high prices, the continuation of US restocking, and the recovery of Chinese demand. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The expected trading dominates the changes in the futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The import of primary aluminum decreased significantly in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and related items increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy withdrawal in 2026, but the PV installation volume has rebounded better than expected, boosting short - term demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has accumulated, the apparent demand has decreased, and the basis has rebounded but remains at a low level. The strong expectation supports the current high price [1][2]. Group 3: Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline. Domestic zinc ore will be in short supply from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and other smelters have limited increments. In December, many smelters had maintenance, and it is expected that they will resume production in mid - January. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas, European demand is average while US zinc ingot imports have increased recently. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Group 4: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel has slightly declined. On the demand side, it is generally weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is relatively strong. In terms of inventory, the domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and about 30,000 tons were delivered to LME warehouses this week, mainly in Asian warehouses. In the short term, the fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian energy and mining minister did not disclose the nickel production quota for 2026 but said it would be adjusted according to industry demand, so the short - term policy and fundamentals will continue to compete [6][7]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production schedules remain at a high level. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of chromium iron has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the high - level inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts have remained the same. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the news of the Indonesian quota is the main driver of recent prices, following the nickel price in the short term [10]. Group 6: Lead - This week, the lead price has fluctuated at a high level following the macro trend. On the supply side, primary production is driven by profits, with an expected production recovery of 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The concentrate production has decreased seasonally, and the concentrate has become tight with no hope of a TC rebound. The recycling plants have resumed production after the environmental inspection at the beginning of the month, and recyclers are starting to hold up prices. On the demand side, the battery production rate is high this week, but the monthly battery finished - product inventory has accumulated, and demand is expected to weaken. The lead ingot market has been tight since the end of September, and although the supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated by the recovery of recycling production, it is difficult to accumulate inventory due to the high - rate production of battery factories. The downstream's low - price restocking provides support. The refined - scrap price difference has returned to - 150. The new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the year - end inventory counting has led to a dull trading environment. It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [11]. Group 7: Tin - This week, the tin price has increased. On the supply side, domestic tin production has remained the same. Overseas, production in Wa State may be affected in the first quarter due to equipment problems in local mines, and the export quota issue in Indonesia is still under negotiation. The war in the DRC and Rwanda has not affected local mining production, but border risks still exist. On the demand side, downstream restocking willingness is strong due to rigid orders and the expectation of pre - installation before the cancellation of PV tax rebates, leading to a significant decline in domestic inventory, while overseas LME inventory has fluctuated. In the short term, there are supply risks in major global suppliers, and it is difficult to accumulate large - scale inventory under the expectation of domestic export rush. Before the macro sentiment weakens, the upward driving force is stronger. The risk of going long on the fundamental side lies in whether the overseas LME inventory will accumulate on a large scale. In the long term, demand determines the upper price limit. Tin can be a multi - allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first quarter, but if the macro situation falls short of expectations, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [11][12]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - This week, some factories in Shaanxi and Xinjiang have increased production, while some in Xinjiang Yili and Qinghai have decreased production again. As large factories are gradually entering the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply - demand balance is expected to keep the price fluctuating with the cost. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the low operating rate is expected to keep the price oscillating at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [15]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - Recently, potential disturbances in domestic and foreign resource - ends, the increase in iron - lithium processing fees, and the macro sentiment have jointly driven up the lithium price. On the raw material side, the available supply is still tight, and the price is relatively firm. The auction of Albemarle's concentrate has further boosted market sentiment. On the lithium salt side, the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of long - term contracts and an increase in the proportion and willingness to sell spot orders. Downstream, material factories are cautious about high prices and tend to replenish inventory rigidly after the price drops to a relatively low level. In the second half of the week, the trading volume of orders below 140,000 has slightly increased. Currently, some mid - stream inventories have become visible, with the quotes of first - tier spodumene - based electric carbon at - 1500~ - 1000 and second - and third - tier at - 1800~ - 1500 [18].