《农产品》日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - Industry Situation: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - Spot Market: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - Market Activity: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - Industry Situation: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - Price Changes: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - Spreads and Ratios: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - Futures Market: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - Spot Market: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - Industry Situation: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].