大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In December 2025, production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 tons, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 tons, a 13.46% decrease [8][9]. - Demand - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,094 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,432 tons, a 0.80% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventories may decline [8][9]. - Cost - The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 152,997 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of 6,514 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 148,815 yuan/ton, a 0.84% daily decrease, with a production profit of 4,536 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production profit is negative, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market Outlook - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 157,560 - 166,240 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply - Last week's production increase, and predicted decreases in next month's production and import. The cost of 6% concentrate decreased [8][9]. - Demand - Decreases in the inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises last week, and expected strengthening of next month's demand [8][9]. - Cost - Different production costs and profits for various raw material sources, with the salt lake end having obvious advantages [10]. - Market - The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the main logic is related to supply - demand balance and news sentiment [9][13]. - Factors - Positive factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.51% to 155,500 yuan/ton. The prices of other related products also showed different degrees of change [16]. - Supply - The weekly operating rate increased, and the monthly output of some products decreased. For example, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.17% to 403,900 tons [18]. - Demand - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased, such as the 3.80% decrease in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises to 96,094 tons [18]. - Supply - Lithium Ore - Price - The price of 6% lithium ore CIF decreased. The price of spodumene (6%) was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a 1.90% decrease [16]. - Production - The production of domestic lithium mines showed different trends in different periods. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 3.95% to 10,010 tons in a certain month [18]. - Import - The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% to 677,528 tons, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [18]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate - The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends. For example, the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from lithium ore was 87.14%, a 4.33% increase [18]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased in some months. In December 2025, the production was 99,200 tons, a 4.04% increase [18]. - Import - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased in some cases. The import volume from Chile decreased by 26.84% to 10,824.66 tons [18]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 30,450 tons in a certain month, and the export volume also changed over time [40][44]. - Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different raw materials have different cost - profit situations. For example, the production profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite was positive, while the recycling end generally had a negative profit [10][47]. - Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory - The total inventory decreased by 0.23% to 109,679 tons, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and others [10]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory - The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources also showed different trends [54]. - Demand - Lithium Battery - Price - The price of some batteries showed different trends. For example, the price of 523 square batteries changed over time [58]. - Production - The monthly production of battery cells, such as power ternary and power lithium iron phosphate, showed different trends [58]. - Sales - The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [58][80]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price - The price of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) average was 119,250 yuan/ton, a 1.45% increase [16]. - Production - The monthly production of ternary precursors was 85,120 tons in a certain month, and the supply - demand balance also changed [63][66]. - Demand - Ternary Material - Price - The price of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) average was 205,000 yuan/ton [68]. - Production - The weekly operating rate of ternary materials and the production volume also changed [68]. - Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphate - Price - The price of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate changed over time [72]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends [75]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production - The production of new energy vehicles, including plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles, showed different trends [80]. - Sales - The sales volume and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also changed [80][81].