大越期货沪铜早报-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - The spot price of copper is 104,240, with a basis of 120, showing a premium over futures, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - On January 14, copper inventories increased by 75 to 141,625 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 35,201 tons to 180,543 tons last week, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [3]. - The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish trend [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new high and fluctuated significantly at high levels. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are bullish due to supply - side disturbances and improved PMI; the basis is neutral; inventory is neutral; the price trend on the chart is bullish; the main position is bullish; and there are risks of high - level fluctuations [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and weak global economy suppressing downstream consumption [5]. - Logic: Global policy easing and tight mining supply [4]. - Risk: Natural disasters [4] Spot and Inventory - Shanghai copper spot and inventory data are presented, and the bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [7][14]. Price Difference between Futures and Spot - No detailed information available [8] Exchange Inventory - No detailed analysis available [12] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16] CFTC - No detailed information available [18] Supply - demand Balance - In 2024, there is a small surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]