广发早知道：汇总版-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the metals sector, it points out that copper's long - term fundamentals are good but short - term prices are affected by inventory structure and geopolitical risks; in the agricultural products sector, it mentions that factors such as supply and demand, policies, and seasonal patterns influence the prices of various products. Summary by Catalog Daily Selections - Alumina: The market maintains a wide - range shock. The core contradiction lies in the tug - of - war between policy expectations and the weak fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to oscillate around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected to operate stably with a downward trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal trading in Shanxi has warmed up, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the replenishment demand, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [4]. - Eggs: The egg price has stabilized and increased, and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The futures price is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly stronger state in the short term [5]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend. The main stock index futures contracts had different trends, with IH2603 falling and the other three rising. The basis of the main contracts also showed different states [6][7]. - News: Domestically, the central bank adjusted interest rates and increased the quota of some re - loans. Overseas, the US imposed tariffs on some semiconductors [7][8]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH on dips. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull spreads and control risks [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [11]. - Policy: The central bank cut interest rates on re - loans and rediscounts, and mentioned that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12]. - Operation Suggestions: Unilateral strategies suggest continued waiting, and curve strategies tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term perspective [13]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data, such as the decline in the number of initial jobless claims and the increase in overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds, affected market expectations. The US government's decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions also influenced precious metal prices [14][17]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to operate strongly, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [17][18]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index and the US West route index showed different trends [19]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different performances [19]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price entering the downward cycle pressured the futures [19]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is affected by factors such as inventory structure and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot inventory continues to accumulate, and the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [25][27]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and oscillates. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory is decreasing, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31][33]. - Zinc: The LME's suspension of zinc delivery from South Korea Zinc boosted the price. The fundamentals show that the supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [34][37]. - Tin: The market sentiment has declined, and the price is at a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [37][42]. - Nickel: The price is strong, affected by Indonesia's policy on nickel ore. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand varies in different sectors. It is recommended to operate within a range [42][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate strongly [45][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates and adjusts. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive spreads between months [49][53]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to production cuts and demand recovery [53][55]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is at a low - level shock. It is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak pattern in January, and it is necessary to pay attention to polysilicon production changes [56][58]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market is in a weak supply - demand state during the off - season, and the price oscillates. It is expected that the steel price will move within a range [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [60][62]. - Coking Coal: The price in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the trading has warmed up. It is recommended to go long on dips before the Spring Festival and pay attention to arbitrage [63][67]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage [68][69]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation improves marginally. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [70][72]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese ore has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [73][76]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks drivers, and the soybean meal oscillates. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [77][78]. - Live Pigs: The price returns to the oscillating pattern. The supply is relatively abundant in January, and it is recommended to short on rallies after stabilization [79][80]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment and policy releases [81][83]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price falls, and the domestic market focuses on stocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84][85]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic price stops falling and stabilizes. The short - term price may be adjusted [88]. - Eggs: The price is stable and rising, and the supply - demand pressure is not large. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [92]. - Oils: Palm oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. Different oils have different price trends and influencing factors [93][95]. - Red Dates: The market trading is weak, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [96]. - Apples: The market sentiment cools down, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [97]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The high valuation and downstream production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 7000 yuan and consider low - long positions in the medium - term [98][99]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long when the price is below 5000 yuan and consider positive spreads [100][101]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [102][103]. - Bottle - grade Chips: The supply and demand both decrease in January, and the price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [104][105]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to seasonal inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4000 yuan for EG2605 and consider reverse spreads [106][107]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation improves slightly, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to short BR2603 on rallies and pay attention to the narrowing spread between EB and BZ [108]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short EB03 on rallies and reduce the processing margin [109][110]. - LLDPE: The basis remains stable, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [111][112]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the price is strong. It is recommended to hold the position when the PDH profit expands [113]. - Methanol: The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see [113]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the price is expected to operate stably with a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [114][115]. - PVC: The price fluctuates due to export policies. It is recommended to wait and see on short positions [116][117]. - Urea: The price center moves up due to agricultural demand and inventory reduction. It is expected to be strong in the short term [118][119]. - Soda Ash: The production capacity recovers, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [120][123]. - Glass: The sentiment declines, and the sales rate continues to fall. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term [120][124]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support range and consider long - short arbitrage [127][130].