大越期货甲醇早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic methanol market is expected to be weak in the later period, with clear regional divergence. Inland methanol may decline due to high开工 rates, low downstream demand in winter, and high downstream inventory. The port methanol market is expected to be weakly sorted this week, with support at the bottom but potential for a decline in the fluctuation range if downstream parking or load reduction occurs. It is expected that the methanol price will be mainly in a strong - oscillating state this week, with MA2605 operating between 2210 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The later domestic methanol market is weak, with differences between inland and port areas. Inland methanol may fall, and the port market is expected to be weakly sorted. The expected price range of MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyet), reduced methanol production in Iran, low port inventory, new production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and a planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, and methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - Likely to be bearish: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season, a significant decline in MTBE operating rate, coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.09% to 2240 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2273 yuan/ton. The basis was - 33 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 1.0445 million tons, a significant decrease of 114,800 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas decreased by 6.17 tons to 558,200 tons [5]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased [8]. - Profit: The profits of different methanol production processes varied. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest showed different trends [19]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, with different maintenance times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based device has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1,950 tons [56]. - Overseas Devices: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different operating states, such as some Iranian devices being in the process of restarting and recovery, and some devices in other countries operating normally or being under maintenance [57]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic olefin devices are under maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices stopped for maintenance on March 15, 2026, for an expected 45 days [58].