工业硅期货早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply of industrial silicon decreased last week, while demand increased. The cost support has risen during the dry - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 for the industrial silicon 2605 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market shows a situation where supply scheduling is continuously decreasing, and demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable, and the polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 850,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand was 800,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss - making state, while the component production is profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry - season [6]. - Basis: On January 15th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 207,500 tons, an increase of 2.07%. The main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [6]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The polysilicon production last week was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production last week was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. The silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The battery cell production is also in a loss - making state, and the component production is profitable. The scheduled production of battery cells in January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month, and the expected component production in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Cost: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On January 15th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,080 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon The report provides detailed price, inventory, production, and other data of industrial silicon contracts, including prices of different specifications of industrial silicon in East China, futures closing prices of each contract, inventory data of different regions, and production and operating rate data of sample enterprises [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon The report presents price, production, inventory, and other data of polysilicon, including prices of different types of polysilicon, futures closing prices of each contract, silicon wafer production and inventory data, battery cell production and inventory data, and component production, inventory, and export data [17]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - Industrial Silicon: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the cost trends of sample regions, including the cost differences between 421 and 553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [19][36]. - Polysilicon: It presents the disk price trend and the cost trend of the polysilicon industry [22][66]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - Industrial Silicon: It shows the inventory situation of industrial silicon, including the inventory of delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume. It also presents the production and capacity utilization trends, including the weekly production trend of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the operating rate trend [25][28]. - Polysilicon: It shows the inventory, production, and operating rate trends of polysilicon, including the total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial Silicon: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [40][43]. - Polysilicon: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [68]. 3.6 Downstream Market 3.6.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, including the daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, weekly production trend, and price trend [46][52]. - Downstream Products: It presents the price trends of downstream products of organic silicon, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [48]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: It shows the price and supply situation of aluminum alloy, including the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 [55]. - Inventory and Production: It presents the inventory and production trends of aluminum alloy, including the monthly production of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [58]. - Demand: It shows the demand situation of aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries, including the monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. 3.6.3 Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer: It shows the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, including the price trend of different types of silicon wafers, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends [71][74]. - Battery Cell: It presents the price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells, including the price trend of single - crystal P/N type battery cells, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory, operating rate, and export volume [77]. - Photovoltaic Component: It shows the price, production, inventory, and export trends of photovoltaic components, including the price trend of different types of components, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export volume [80]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: It presents the price, production, import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories, including the price trend of photovoltaic coatings, import - export volume of photovoltaic adhesive films, monthly production and export volume of photovoltaic glass, price trend of high - purity quartz sand, and import - export volume of welding strips [83]. - Component Cost - Profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of components, including the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [86]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation: It presents the trends of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation, including the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total volume, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [88].