原油成品油早报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices rebounded this week, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on authorizing the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US strikes Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - International Crude Oil Prices: From January 9th to 15th, WTI prices decreased by $2.83, BRENT prices decreased by $2.76, and DUBAI prices decreased by $1.29. Other related price spreads and differentials also showed various changes [3]. - Domestic and Other Related Prices: From January 9th to 15th, SC prices decreased by $0.60, OMAN prices decreased by $2.16, and the SC - BRT spread increased by $2.73. Domestic gasoline prices increased by 40 yuan, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 204 yuan. Other related prices and spreads also changed accordingly [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran Situation: Iraq has emphasized its opposition to the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran. The US Treasury has announced new sanctions against Iran, and at least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. The US has lowered the security alert level at a Qatari air base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has requested Trump to postpone the attack on Iran to allow Israel more time to prepare for possible retaliation. Trump has stated that the Iranian government may collapse due to unrest but that "any regime can fail." The White House has said that Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and retains all options on the Iran issue. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan has said that Trump has informed Iran that he has no intention of launching an attack and has asked Tehran to exercise restraint. The President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, has called for increased sanctions against Iran. Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran, and the White House is consulting internally and with allies on the matter [3][4]. - Venezuela Oil: Trafigura, a large commodity trader assigned by Trump to sell Venezuelan oil, is preparing to unload its first batch of cargo after deploying a ship off the coast of Curaçao Island. The arrival of the oil tanker at the Caribbean island marks the next step in the process, and the region is likely to become a transit point for exports [5]. 3.3 Inventory - EIA reports show that in the week ending January 9th, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9th were 8.977 million barrels, higher than the expected 3.565 million barrels and the previous value of 7.702 million barrels. US refined oil inventories for the same period were - 29,000 barrels, lower than the expected 512,000 barrels and the previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5].