大越期货原油早报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Overnight crude oil continued to decline. Trump slowed down threatening actions against Iran, reducing short - term geopolitical concerns. However, the US continued to seize oil tankers from Venezuela, and there were still supply concerns supporting the crude oil market. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, and it's necessary to continuously monitor geopolitical developments. SC2603 will operate in the 438 - 448 range, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump said the killing in Iran's protest suppression was decreasing, and there were no plans for large - scale executions. The US seized a Venezuela - related oil tanker. Some Fed officials hinted at a rate cut. The overall situation is neutral [3] - Basis: On January 15, Oman crude oil spot price was $63.48 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $62.19 per barrel, with a basis of 21.06 yuan/barrel, and the spot was at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 5.278 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.238 million barrels). EIA inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected a decrease of 1.702 million barrels). Cushing area inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 745,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of January 15 was 3.464 million barrels, unchanged, which is bearish [3] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3] - Main Position: As of January 6, WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, which is bearish [3] - Expectation: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. SC2603 will operate in the 438 - 448 range, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3] 2. Recent News - Military Action on Iran: Trump postponed the decision on military action against Iran. The White House is consulting internally and with allies. The US military is withdrawing some troops from Middle - East bases and sending reinforcements. Israel's Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the action [5] - US Unemployment Data: US initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased to 198,000 in the week ending January 10, the lowest since November last year, indicating no significant increase in layoffs at the beginning of the year [5] - India's Russian Oil Purchase: India's purchase of Russian oil may stabilize or decline this month. In December last year, imports dropped to a three - year low, a one - third decline from the June peak. The US imposed a 50% punitive tariff on India and is considering a sanctions bill [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6] - Bearish Factors: Easing of the Middle - East situation and consistent expectations of crude oil surplus by institutions [6] - Market Driver: Short - term focus on geopolitics, long - term risk of oversupply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from $66.52 to $63.76 (- 4.15%), WTI from $61.88 to $59.17 (- 4.38%), SC from 448.9 to 451.4 (0.56%), and Oman from $62.21 to $62.85 (1.03%) [7] - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd dropped from $68.90 to $66.63 (- 3.29%), WTI from $62.02 to $59.19 (- 4.56%), Oman from $63.08 to $63.48 (0.63%), Shengli from $60.71 to $60.15 (- 0.92%), and Dubai from $62.56 to $62.61 (0.08%) [9] - API Inventory: As of January 9, API inventory was 449.357 million barrels, an increase of 5.278 million barrels compared to the previous week [10] - EIA Inventory: Data shows the change in EIA inventory from October 31 to January 2 [13] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of January 6, the net long position was 57,352, a decrease of 7,239 compared to the previous period [16] - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of January 6, the net long position was 122,965, a decrease of 3,219 compared to the previous period [19]