大越期货燃料油早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil turned into a premium in early January after being in the negative range for most of December and reached the highest level since September 16 on January 13, which supports the price. However, the overnight geopolitical concerns continued to decline, and attention should be paid to the callback risk of fuel oil. FU2603 is expected to trade in the range of 2540 - 2590, and LU2603 in the range of 3050 - 3100 [3] - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains around the current level. The spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil rose for the second consecutive trading day to the highest level in nearly four months. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will receive more arbitrage cargoes from the West in January and February [3] - The market is affected by the resonance of supply influenced by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The expected trading ranges for FU2603 and LU2603 are 2540 - 2590 and 3050 - 3100 respectively. Attention should be paid to the callback risk of fuel oil due to the decline in geopolitical concerns [3] 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Iranian situation instability and the issuance of China's import quotas [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market Drivers: The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains stable. The spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil reached a nearly four - month high. More Western arbitrage cargoes are expected in January and February. The assessment is neutral [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at $358/ton with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at $429/ton with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton. The spot is nearly flat to the futures, and the assessment is neutral [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of January 3 was 25.41 million barrels, a decrease of 1.34 million barrels. The assessment is bullish [3] - Market Chart: The price is near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The assessment is bullish [3] - Main Positions: The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short, with short positions decreasing; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the main positions are short, with short positions increasing. The assessment is bearish [3] 3.4 Spread Data - Futures Price Changes: The price of the FU main contract futures remained unchanged at 2586, while the LU main contract futures price decreased by 11 to 3087. The basis of FU increased by 4.41 to - 10, with an increase rate of 31.36%, and the basis of LU decreased by 38 to - 16, with a decrease rate of 175% [5] - Spot Price Changes: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1 to 443, with a decrease rate of - 0.23%. Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged at 460. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.06 to 358, with an increase rate of 0.30%. Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 6.5 to 429, with a decrease rate of - 1.49%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.94 to 332.35, with a decrease rate of - 0.28%. Singapore diesel increased by 8.41 to 598.05, with an increase rate of 1.43% [6] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on January 3 was 25.41 million barrels, a decrease of 1.34 million barrels compared to the previous period. Inventory data from October 25, 2025, to January 3, 2026, are also presented [3][8]