大越期货沥青期货早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in December 2025 was 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 27.5048%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise production was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 996,000 tons, an increase of 3.64% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 25.4%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 6.738%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 17%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 23.5%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 131.61 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 651.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month. The asphalt processing profit remained flat, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis: On January 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 67 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 784,000 tons, an increase of 1.82% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory was 584,000 tons, an increase of 2.10% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 570,000 tons, a decrease of 12.30% month - on - month. The social and in - plant inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [9]. - The disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - The main position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and lower than expected. Inventory remains stable. Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,138 - 3,196 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Supply pressure is still high, but refineries' production cuts this week will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, with most downstream开工率 lower than or close to historical average levels [8]. - Cost: Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: Spot is at a discount to futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Social and in - plant inventories accumulate, while port inventory decreases, which is neutral [9]. - Disk: The futures price is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - Main Position: Net short position with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish [9]. - Likely Factors: High - cost crude oil provides some support; high - price supply has insufficient demand, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2026 [18][19][21]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2026 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2026 [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 - 2026 [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 - 2026 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2026 [39][40]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2026 [42][43][44]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [46][47]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2026 [49][50]. - Production Volume: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2026 [52][54]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2026 [55][57]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [58][60]. - 开工率: The report shows the historical weekly asphalt产能利用率 trends from 2023 - 2026 [61][62]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends from 2018 - 2026 [64][65]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2026 [67][68][69]. - Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2026 [71][72]. - In - plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2026 [74][75]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025 [77][78]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the historical South Korean asphalt import spread trends from 2020 - 2026 [80][81][82]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [86][87]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 - 2025 [89][90]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025 [91]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [93][94][96]. - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: The report shows the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 - 2026 [98][99]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: The report shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2026 [101][102]. - Downstream开工情况: The report shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 - 2026 [104][105][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109].