大越期货PVC期货早报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PVC are bearish, with increasing supply pressure this week and expected further increases in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. Current demand may remain sluggish, and production scheduling could face pressure due to cost factors [8][9][10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is not smooth. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [15][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, while ethylene method enterprise production was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [8]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream开工率 was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,052.47 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit reduction of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [9]. - Other Aspects: On January 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position decreased [11][12]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various price indicators (such as different regions' PVC prices, futures closing prices, etc.), month - to - month price differences, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data, along with their changes compared to the previous period [17][18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: Relevant charts show the long - term trend of the base price of PVC futures [20][21]. - Price and Volume Trends: The report presents the trends of PVC futures prices, trading volumes, and positions in recent months, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and the trends of moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120 [23][24]. - Spread Analysis: It shows the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures in different periods [26][27]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: - Lancoke: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of Lancoke over the years [29]. - Calcium Carbide: It presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and maintenance loss trends of calcium carbide over the years [34]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It shows the price, production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt over the years [37]. - Caustic Soda: It presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, inventory trends of caustic soda over the years, as well as the cost - profit trends of the Shandong chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [40][41][42]. - Supply Trends: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profit trends, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production over the years [43][44][45]. - Demand Trends: It presents the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption volume, and downstream开工率 (including profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) trends over the years. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion area data of the real estate industry, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment year - on - year data [48][49][50]. - Inventory: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over the years [60][61]. - Ethylene Method - Related: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread over the years [62][63]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand differences [65][66].