合成橡胶市场周报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained high. The strong demand for raw material butadiene and rumors of some export deals have driven up production costs significantly. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to obvious differences in negotiations. Inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees. Although short - term production profits have been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply - side production cuts yet. Downstream terminals lack the willingness to actively stock up at high prices, and inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to remain high [8] - With the gradual stabilization of the production schedules of overhauled enterprises this week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production schedule of the devices is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to control inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Market review: This week, the butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export deals, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Domestic butadiene rubber supply remains high. The cost has increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong. Inventories of production and trading enterprises have increased. There are no signs of supply - side production cuts, and downstream terminals lack the willingness to stock up. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased, with semi - steel tire production expected to be stable and all - steel tire production still under control [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [12] - As of January 16, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 60 [19] - As of January 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,530 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [22] 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of January 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - As of January 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - As of January 15, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 556.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 720 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, a decrease of 1.89% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2 Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [36] - As of January 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.68%, an increase of 0.53% from last week [36] - As of January 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 721 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of January 16, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,940 tons, an increase of 1,820 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,900 tons, an increase of 550 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3 Downstream - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [46] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [49]