沪镍不锈钢市场周报：利润修复产量回升，镍不锈钢上行遇阻-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, with attention on the MA10 support, in the range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel futures prices are expected to adjust strongly, with the range to be concerned about 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +1.62% and an amplitude of 9.79%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 141,350 yuan/ton [9] - Macroscopically, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - lending and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased to 198,000, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [9] - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons next year, causing market concerns about raw material supply. It is expected that the supply will be relatively loose in the first quarter. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and recently the nickel price has rebounded, with profits repaired. It is expected that the subsequent production of refined nickel will rise again. In terms of demand, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [9] - Technically, the price is adjusted at a high position of positions, with large differences between long and short positions. There is resistance above, and it is expected to be mainly in wide - range adjustment [9] 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of +2.99% and an amplitude of 6.60%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 14,275 yuan/ton [9] - In terms of raw materials, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. Under the situation of shrinking raw material supply, nickel - iron production will face production - cut pressure [9] - In terms of supply, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel shows a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezing is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also not many, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal small decline [9] - Technically, the price is strong with an increase in positions, and the long sentiment is strong [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - As of January 9, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 139,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,240 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of January 9, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 965 yuan/nickel, an increase of 50 yuan/nickel from last week [15] 3.2.2 Basis - As of January 9, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 141,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,810 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 490 yuan/ton [20] 3.2.3 Price Ratios - As of January 9, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.04, a decrease of 0.09 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1 from last week [27] 3.2.4 Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of January 16, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 78,736 lots, a decrease of 6,275 lots compared with January 12, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 9,792 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots compared with January 12, 2026 [33] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Nickel ore port inventory decreased. As of January 9, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 13.1977 million tons, a decrease of 122,600 tons from last week [38] - The production profit of electrowinning nickel was profitable but decreased. As of January 9, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 10,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,650 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased and imports decreased. In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [44] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory increased slowly. As of January 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. As of December 31, the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 tons, an increase of 426 tons from last week [51][52] 3.3.2 Demand Side - The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the export volume decreased. In December 2025, the total stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 572,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.91%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7472 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%; the production of 200 - series was 940,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.74%. In November 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. In January, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55] - The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi showed a downward trend. As of December 26, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60] - The stainless steel production profit increased. As of January 9, the stainless steel production profit was 377 yuan/ton, an increase of 439 yuan/ton from last week [64] - The real estate industry was in a weak downward trend, and the home appliance industry showed a decline. From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68] - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry stabilized and improved. In November 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71]