白糖市场周报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 0.57%. In December 2025, both the sugar cane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased year - on - year. The domestic market is in the peak of the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, with overall data being slightly bearish. Although downstream stocking has started and food processing enterprises' procurement has increased, the overall increase is limited. Against the background of an expected increase in production, sugar prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [5][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57% [5][17]. - Market Outlook: In the first half of December 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 5.92 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, and produced 254,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 28.80%. In the domestic market, during the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, sugar production and sales in Guangxi in December decreased year - on - year, while Yunnan's sugar production progress was faster and sales were slightly better than the same period last year. Downstream stocking has started, but the overall increase in procurement by food processing enterprises is limited. Sugar prices lack the motivation to rebound and are expected to remain volatile [5]. - Future Focus Factors: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.01%. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 154,098 lots, an increase of 16,276 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 8,581 lots, and short positions increased by 76,950 lots [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.32 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57%. The top twenty net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 72,594 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126 [17][25]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread and Basis: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 9 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 132 yuan/ton [29]. - Spot Market Price: As of January 16, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,390 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,370 yuan/ton [36]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,388 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 259 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton from last week [42]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production: Not detailed in the report about overall production situation, but mentioned the situation of Brazil and domestic regions. - Industrial Inventory: Not detailed in the report. - Import Volume: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - Demand Side - Sales Rate: The sugar sales rate is average, but no detailed data is provided. - Production of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks: In November 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was mentioned, but no detailed data was provided. - Stock Market: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific analysis was given.