棉花（纱）市场周报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58%. The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.23%. The 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales and shipments showed positive trends. In the domestic market, the national commercial cotton inventory continued to rise, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream demand was generally weak, but the yarn price remained stable due to cost - driven factors. The 12 - month textile and clothing export growth rate rebounded. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and it is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5][11][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58% [5]. - Market Outlook: US cotton export sales and shipments were strong. In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak but supported by cost and export data. The market is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose by about 0.23% this week. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,409 lots, an increase of 247 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 110,329 lots, a decrease of 1,790 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,920 lots, a decrease of 2,037 lots from the previous week [11]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of January 8, the net increase in 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales was 339,700 bales, a record high for the year. The international cotton spot price this week was 75.05 cents per pound, unchanged from last week [16]. - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased by about 0.58% this week, and the yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.75%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 168,795 lots, and those in yarn futures were - 1,467 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,666, and the yarn futures warehouse receipts were 70 [19][25][31]. - Spot Market: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,931 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton. The 5 - 9 contract spread of Zhengzhou cotton was - 155 yuan per ton, and the spot price spread between cotton 3128B and yarn C32S was 5,369 yuan per ton [35][40][51]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of January 15, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,735 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,616 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The import yarn price index showed different prices for different varieties [55]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit: As of January 15, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,235 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,629 yuan per ton, an increase of 204 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply - Side: As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The imported yarn volume in November 2025 was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [63][70]. - Mid - End Industry: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - Terminal Consumption: In December 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%, and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [79][83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is provided [84]. - Stock Market: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [87].