瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 to 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 to 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline, with the price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranging from 1,830 to 1,838 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2,105 to 2,118 yuan/ton. Despite the support from the procurement of olefins in the northwest and the rising port prices, the market remained weak due to high enterprise inventories and weak downstream demand [7]. - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is more than the output from capacity recovery, resulting in a decrease in overall production. This week, the inventory of inland enterprises increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased significantly. Although the port methanol inventory decreased, the total volume is still at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [7]. - In terms of demand, the MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing has entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads. The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. It is expected that the MTO devices will operate stably next week, with no obvious change plan, and the weekly average operating rate is expected to decline [7]. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,210 - 2,300 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated, inland prices declined. Market was weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased. Inland enterprise inventory increased slightly, port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the MTO industry weakened, and the operating rate is expected to decline [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,210 - 2,300 in the short term [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 1.5% [11]. - Inter - period Spread: As of January 16, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 9 [15]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - Warehouse Receipts: As of January 15, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 compared to last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2,247.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1,842.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [29]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of January 15, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, with no change compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 56 US dollars/ton, with no change compared to last week [35]. - Basis: As of January 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week. As of January 15, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, with no change compared to last week [42]. - Industry: As of January 15, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the previous period. As of January 14, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.13%. The total port inventory was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons compared to the previous period. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of January 15, the methanol import profit was - 24.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/ton compared to last week [47][50][55]. - Downstream: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 86.93%, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the previous period. As of January 16, the domestic methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1,021 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan/ton compared to last week [58][61]. 3.5. Option Market Analysis - No relevant information provided