沪铜市场周报：淡季影响需求谨慎，沪铜或将有所承压-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to the cautious demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weakly oscillating manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated downwards, with a weekly change of - 0.63% and an amplitude of 5.51%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 100,770 yuan/ton [6] - International Situation: In December, the US CPI growth remained stable, and the core CPI was slightly lower than expected. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly, but the Fed is likely to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [6] - Domestic Situation: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing active participation in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction [6] - Fundamentals: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to decline, and the cost support for copper prices from tight ore supplies remained. The supply was relatively sufficient, but the demand was cautious due to the off - season and high previous copper prices, leading to a continuous increase in refined copper social inventory [6] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of January 16, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,220 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 100,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the position was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 37,259 lots [13] - Spot Prices: As of January 16, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,855 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 655 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main contract was - 370 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [19] - Premiums and Positions: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 36 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 60,699 lots, an increase of 6,468 lots from last week [23] - Options Market: As of January 16, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.657, a week - on - week increase of 0.0141 [29] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Prices and Fees: The copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 93,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,260 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [32] - Imports and Spreads: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74,700 tons (3.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 7,268.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 922.73 yuan/ton [37] - Production and Inventory: In October 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1,938 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 37 thousand tons (1.95%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. The inventory of seven domestic ports was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - Refined Copper Production: In November 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,000 tons (2.66%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. The global refined copper production was 2,386 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 thousand tons (0.89%), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [44] - Supply - Refined Copper Imports: In November 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,404.29 tons (5.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was - 1,631.37 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,597.69 yuan/ton [52][53] - Supply - Social Inventory: The LME total inventory increased by 2,150 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 20,718 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 49,201 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 327,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,900 tons [56] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Demand - Copper Products: In November 2025, the production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 222,000 tons (11.08%). The import volume was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons (2.27%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.87% [62] - Application - Power Grid and Home Appliances: As of November 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.5%, - 23.4%, 5.6%, 3.6%, and - 5% year - on - year respectively [66] - Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of November 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43,184 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [72] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand Balance: According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative supply - demand balance was - 0.14 million tons [78][79]