沪锌市场周报：采需转淡库存略降，预计锌价震荡偏强-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures showed a pattern of rising first and then pulling back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly, with the support level of MA5 to be focused on, and the price range is estimated to be between 24,500 - 25,700 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,750 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the central bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores has intensified, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level. Technically, the position has increased and the price is strong, with a strong bullish atmosphere, breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Price Changes: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton or 3.25% compared with January 9, 2026. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,314.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 179.5 US dollars/ton or 5.73% compared with January 9, 2026 [7]. - Net Position Adjustment: As of January 16, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was adjusted. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 252,985 lots, an increase of 34,932 lots or 16.02% compared with January 9, 2026 [13]. - Price Spreads: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 825 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,185 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 7,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026 [18]. - Premium and Discount: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton or 3.33% compared with January 9, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the price difference between the near - month and 3 - month contracts of LME zinc was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.95 US dollars/ton compared with January 8, 2026 [23]. - Inventory Changes: As of January 15, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 1.2% compared with January 8, 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 76,311 tons, an increase of 2,459 tons or 3.33% compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 106,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 6.09% compared with January 8, 2026 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Zinc Ore Production and Import: In October 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Global Refined Zinc Supply Shortage: In October 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc shortage was 600 tons, compared with a shortage of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, in September 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 35,700 tons [37][38]. - Expected Decline in Refined Zinc Production: In November 2025, the zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41]. - Significant Increase in Refined Zinc Exports: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Galvanized Sheet (Strip) Exports Stabilized and Rebounded: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49]. - Decline in New Housing Starts: From January to November 2025, the new housing start area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. From January to November 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 117.8591 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55]. - Decline in Infrastructure Investment Growth Rate: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 compared with last month and a decrease of 0.61 compared with the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61]. - Increase in Refrigerator and Air - Conditioner Production: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63]. - Stable and Improving Automobile Production and Sales: In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The production volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,295,965 units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [68].