螺纹钢市场周报：消费淡季、宏观偏暖，螺纹期价区间整理-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is mixed with overseas and domestic factors. Domestically, the central bank's "combination punch" supports economic development, while overseas there are concerns about inflation and geopolitical situations. In the industry, it is the consumption off - season for rebar. Rebar maintains low production and low inventory, with apparent demand turning from decline to increase, but overall performance is average. The RB2605 contract is expected to be range - bound, and considering trading in the 3120 - 3200 range with attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of January 16, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3350 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 190.3 million tons (-0.74 million tons) year - on - year (-2.99 million tons) [7]. - Apparent demand turned from decline to increase, with this period's apparent demand at 190.34 million tons (+15.38 million tons) year - on - year (+5.19 million tons) [7]. - Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.07 million tons (-0.04 million tons) year - on - year (+12.08 million tons) [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 2.17 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 10.39 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest - rate cuts due to inflation concerns, and the Trump administration's policies may increase inflation pressure. The situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support economic development, and there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [9]. - Cost - aspect: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke showed weakness again. Coke spot prices increased, but futures prices corrected from highs, reducing the expectation of further spot price increases [9]. - Technical - aspect: The RB2605 contract is range - bound, with technical support at the 3100 level. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are relatively stable [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price Movement - This week, the RB2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 82,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,047 tons. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 28,705 lots, an increase of 231 lots from last week [22]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On January 16, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Iron Ore - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [32]. - From January 5 - 11, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.437 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons [36]. 3.2 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased to 71.47% (-0.14%), and the daily average coke production was 50.01 million tons (-0.1 million tons). Coke inventory was 40.61 million tons (-3.56 million tons), and the total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons (+42.87 million tons). The available days of coking coal were 14.4 days (+0.67 days) [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude - steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The cumulative crude - steel production from January to November was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [44]. - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0149 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0353 million tons. On January 15, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - material producers was 190.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons from last week and 2.99 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - On January 15, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - material producers was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week and 0.65% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 72.97%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 17.05 percentage points [50]. - On January 15, the in - factory inventory of rebar at 137 building - material producers was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 0.0527 million tons from last week and an increase of 0.1729 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 0.0523 million tons from last week and a decrease of 0.0521 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 4.3807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0004 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1208 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the new - construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 2.7% [56]. 5. Options Market - Due to positive macro - expectations and average industry performance, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59].