铁矿石市场周报：港口续增、宏观偏暖铁矿期价高位整理-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is positive with the central bank's "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. The industrial situation shows stable spot supply, a slight decline in hot metal production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and an increase in factory inventories. The iron ore price may fluctuate within the range of 800 - 825 yuan. It is recommended to consider range - bound trading for the I2605 contract, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Price - As of January 16, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 812 (-2.5) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 32.8 tons week - on - week. From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons week - on - week [5][6]. Arrival - From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 1.903 million tons to 30.15 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports decreased by 0.437 million tons to 14.692 million tons [6]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 0.0149 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.0353 million tons year - on - year [6]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons week - on - week and 15.7135 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 10.0249 million tons year - on - year [6]. Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract's rebound was under pressure. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 16th, the price difference was 18.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [14]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 16, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1500, a decrease of 100 week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18609, a decrease of 1649 compared with the previous week [20]. Spot Price - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, with no change week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation Arrival Volume - From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 32.8 tons week - on - week. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.364 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 1.903 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.64 million tons, and the arrival volume at six northern ports decreased by 0.437 million tons [30]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons. The inventory of steel mills' imported iron ore was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a decrease of 0.0143 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, an increase of 1.13 days [33]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 14, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 2 days. On January 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1532, a decrease of 156 week - on - week [37]. Import and Capacity Utilization - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 62.82%, an increase of 4.06% compared with the previous period. The daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, an increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons [41]. Domestic Iron Ore Production - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 domestic iron mines was 22.811 million tons, a decrease of 0.129 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.6%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decline of 3.3% [44]. 3.4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Production - In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [47]. Steel Import and Export - In December 2025, China's steel exports were 11.301 million tons, an increase of 1.321 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 13.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 0.517 million tons of steel, an increase of 0.021 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 4.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [47]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production - On January 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 0.0149 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.0353 million tons year - on - year [50]. 3.5. Options Market - With a slight decline in hot metal production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, relatively sufficient spot resources but uneven variety distribution, and a positive macro - environment, the iron ore price may enter a range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to consider simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options for the I2605 contract [53].