Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the central bank has introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production has increased for four consecutive weeks, terminal demand has risen simultaneously, and inventory has continued to decline. Although the cost - side support is weakening, the macro - atmosphere is positive, and the market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on January 16, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3315 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton week - on - week). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 308.36 million tons (+2.85 million tons week - on - week, - 11.83 million tons year - on - year). - Apparent demand increased to 314.16 million tons (+5.82 million tons week - on - week, +11.6 million tons year - on - year). - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 362.33 million tons (-5.8 million tons week - on - week, +45.9 million tons year - on - year). - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest rate cuts, and the situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support the economy, including interest rate cuts, increased loan quotas, and adjusted mortgage down - payment ratios, and there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. - Cost - aspect: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production has decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke are showing signs of weakness, with increased production and inventory of coking coal and a high - level correction of coke futures prices. - Technical - aspect: The HC2605 contract is range - bound, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages, and the support at the 3300 mark is noteworthy. The MACD indicator shows an upward rebound. - Market view: Considering the positive macro - environment and the current industrial situation, the market is expected to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price and Spread - This week, the HC2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the HC2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - This week, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 holders increased. On January 16, the warehouse receipt volume was 221,062 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,525 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 in the futures contract was 13,134 lots, an increase of 6,227 lots from the previous week [20]. c. Spot Price - On January 16, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous week [31]. b. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3180.9 million tons, a decrease of 32.8 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2606.4 million tons, a decrease of 136.4 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3015.0 million tons, an increase of 190.3 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 million tons, an increase of 164.0 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1469.2 million tons, a decrease of 43.7 million tons week - on - week [37]. c. Inventory - This week, the iron ore port inventory increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17288.70 million tons, an increase of 244.26 million tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. On January 15, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 149.31 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons week - on - week and 64.47 million tons year - on - year [41]. d. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.47%, a decrease of 0.14%. The daily coke output was 50.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons. The coke inventory was 40.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.56 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons, an increase of 42.87 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 14.4 days, an increase of 0.67 days [45]. 4. Industry Situation a. Supply - side - Steel Exports: In December 2025, China's steel exports increased month - on - month. The export volume was 1130.1 million tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. - Hot - Rolled Coil Production: On January 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily hot - metal output was 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 million tons from the same period last year. On January 15, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 2.85 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.83 million tons from the same period last year. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: On January 15, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in 37 production enterprises was 76.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.79 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 2.32 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.01 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 48.22 million tons year - on - year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 45.9 million tons year - on - year [58]. b. Downstream Demand - Automobile Industry: In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 329.6 million vehicles and 327.2 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.1 million vehicles and 3440 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. - Household Appliance Industry: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 24536.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household refrigerators was 9934.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%; and the production of household washing machines was 11309.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [61].
热轧卷板市场周报：多空博弈，热卷期价区间整理-20260116
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 09:21